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It may have just been a coincidence of three low readings last year, but that would be long odds since it would have been three at the low end of the ES that is typical for that load.
This is why it's so important to know not just your load's power factor, but its standard deviation (SD). SD, for those who don't know, is a measurement of how close you can expect any particular shot out of that gun, with that load, under those environmental conditions, to be to the average velocity. If I can believe the info sheet that came with my CED Millennium chronograph, how SD works is that, statistically, it's been proven that 99.7 percent of rounds fired will fall within three standard deviations above or below the average velocity, 95.4 percent will fall within two standard deviations above or below, and 68 percent will fall within one standard deviation above or below. This is important information to have.
Just to make the math simple, let's say we're firing a 130-grain bullet, trying to make the 125 power factor in USPSA/IPSC, our goal is a 1,000 fps average for a 130 power factor, and we do in fact achieve that. Is this going to guarantee we make power factor on match day? (Granted the environmental conditions are the same, which is why we obsess so much about things like whether or not a powder is temperature sensitive, the effects of altitude on bullet velocity, etc.) Well, that depends on the SD. Let's say our 130-grain, 1,000 fps, 130 power factor load has an SD of 10. That means that we can have every reasonable expectation that on match day 68 percent of rounds fired, basically two out of three, will be within one SD (10 fps) above or below the average velocity, in other words between 990 and 1,010 fps (128.7 to 131.3 power factor). 95.4 percent will be within two SD (20 fps) above or below, or 980 to 1,020 fps (127.4 to 132.6 power factor). And we can pretty much bet the farm that almost every bullet we fire out of that gun, 99.7 percent, is going to fall within three SD (30 fps) above or below, or 970 to 1,030 fps (126.1 to 133.9 power factor).
So, with a 130-grain/1,000 fps/130 power factor load, if we have a 10 SD, we can be confident that even if every one of our shots is toward the lower end of what comes out of that gun, which is extremely unlikely but still possible, we're still going to make power factor on match day. If we can turn out ammo that gives us something like, say, a 6 SD, our comfort factor increases even more. If we have a 20 SD, on the other hand? That means if all three of our rounds come out of that gun traveling toward the low end of what we can expect (940 fps), we're only going to post a 122.2 power factor. We cannot have confidence that that load, with that SD, is going to make power factor on match day, even though it still has the same 130 average power factor as the load with the tighter SD. At that point we have two choices, (1) we can change the load, go for a different bullet, different powder, or whatever other changes we think might tighten up the SD, or (2) we can bump the load up to give us more of a cushion even with the sloppy SD.
Bart, it sounds to me like your ammo, on that day, gave you the "unlikely but still possible" performance of three rounds in a row at the low end of the scale. But because you had paid attention to your SD, you still made power factor, albeit barely.
Pride and fear are emotions, which hope for an outcome. Outcomes take your attention from the present, where the shooting happens, to the future. It is totally impossible to do anything in the future, because it hasn't happened yet. The key to shooting your best is to be present as the witness of the shooting. Do not judge, do not give yourself anything to live up to. We can only shoot as well as we have trained ourselves to shoot. To try to shoot only induces stress. Be content with your current ability. And accumulate practice to improve that ability. Consolidate, build strength where you feel weakness. We cannot raise our ability until we accept our current limitations. Practice dissolves limitations. Matches simply define where the current limits exist. The game of shooting is all about redefining our limits.
- Sam
Amateurs do it til they get it right. Professionals do it til they can't get it wrong.
"It's not the will to win that matters - everyone has that. It's the will to prepare to win that matters."
- Paul "Bear" Bryant
"The only reason why Everest is the highest mountain ever climbed is because it's the highest. If there was one higher, I bet there'd be people trying to climb it."
- Jack Barnes