[B.Reid]

I'm wondering as are many of you I'm sure as to where our sport is heading and what we'll all have to do to continue doing what we love. The inaccessibility of rifle parts and primers is quite alarming as is the proposed legislation against our sport. I'm curious if the MD's have given thought to having more one day matches to keep the competitors expenses lower and perhaps having more cash and plaque payback matches with perhaps fewer shooters. I personally don't shoot some matches because I think they're not really relevant to what I'm trying to accomplish and it's just a waste of supplies. I understand that this happened several years ago but it didn't last forever obviously. I'm also curious as to the cost of our equipment staying the same as the equipment catches back up to demand. I'm now paying $163 per sleave of Winchester small pistol primers where as I used to pay $90 per sleave. I'm not trying to be all gloom and doom but I am looking for other's points of view.

DVC,
Bryan

[BritinUSA]

The prices of primers and the availability of certain parts are all linked to some aversion to the political climate. I'm not going to say more about that as this is a 'politics-free zone' (thankfully).

The panic buying that has been going on is driving up the prices, people are stocking up even though they probably have more parts/primers than they could go through in several years. Even I got caught up in it, I bought a rifle 3 months ago that I still haven't had a chance to shoot. The down-side is that it's tough for some people to get the things they need to keep shooting. The up-side is that there are a lot more gun owners out there.

The former is bad for our sport, and the latter is great. The supplies/prices will come down once demand reduces and that will eventually happen, it always does. Then we can start to reap the rewards of those new shooters, we (USPSA) should be in the forefront getting new members into our sport. The more people we have shooting the matches, the more we grow and the more of the clubs will prosper, and it also helps to control range fees.

I think we need to do more to make the general public more aware of what we do. Our Nationals is our premier event and we need to promote that to spectators (if possible), maybe tie-in the event with some kind of gun-show or something.

I'm optimistic about our future...

[JKSNIPER]

Guys,
I keep reading here about the problems with buying primers and I have not seen it here.
I guess its a geographic thing .
Not too many reloaders up here in NY I guess.
JK

[kimel]

Same thing happened in the 90s. Everyone was hoarding like there was no tomorrow. Once everyone had satisfied their hoarding urges (or run out of money, places to store it, etc.) prices went back to "normal" and it was easy to get stuff again.

Will that happen this time? That's anyone's guess.

Or you can look at it in a more positive light in that we are all doing our part to stimulate the economy...one keg of powder, sleeve of primers, etc. at a time.

I just wish bullet prices would come down to reflect the raw material price drops.

[SIE107]

kimel, on Mar 11 2009, 10:23 PM, said:

I just wish bullet prices would come down to reflect the raw material price drops.

Supply and Demand my friend, supply and demand!

[larry cazes]

kimel, on Mar 11 2009, 09:23 PM, said:

I just wish bullet prices would come down to reflect the raw material price drops.

Unfortunately, it does not work that way. I am much more concerned about the political threats than the immediate economic bubble. Historically as a group, we don't have to look very far to see that we dont concern ourselves enough with the political issues that effect the future of our sport.

[Tom D.]

Hear, hear!! Get involved politically or give it up.

[Singlestack]

This thread will be closed if it gets political.

[Coach]

I think the availability of primers and other supplys will eventually work itself out in the coming months. Our sport is in greater jeopardy in my opinion by the lack of ranges where competition can be held. Ranges seem to be an endangered species, and ranges capable of hosting a section, area and national match are in short supply.

Having been involved in the Section match here in Indiana for the last several years it is difficult to find a place to hold the match which can have the right number of stages. The workers at the few places that can host it are wearing down as well.

[L-10_shooter]

I am glad that I bought a keg of powder and a sleeve of primers when I did two months ago becauseI can find squat right now. I am also fortunate that a local guy casts a very quality lead bullet an the best price I can find anywhere in many calibers/weights/shape. I think I have enought components to shoot through the summer. I am new to relaoding and shooting in general. I bought my first gun (G17) last april and started shooting IPSC the following month. Started relaoding in late summer and have had a blast the whole time. I look forward to shooting in future years and improving my USPSA classifications. I also shot my first multi gun match last weekend and what an adrenalin rush!!! I have enjoyed all of the people I shoot with so thanks for being helpful, understanding, and above all safe.......even if most of you can't prononce my name

[Middle Man]

Supply and Demand in the face of consumer hoarding is the biggest issue relating to the availability of certain items in the firearms industry. It's like the gas price explosion after the last batch of hurricanes, it gets reported that some spot is out of gas, then consumers stop and top off their tanks whenever and where ever they can...

It has been widely reported that ammo and components are short, hence that induces more consumers to seek out those goods that are short. We have seen ammo and components (as well as, AR's) occasionally short over the past 3 or 4 years (trust me, I'm paid on straight commission to sell guns I know when and what's short). Current events have merely acted as a multiplier serving to intensify the situation and compress the demand over the short term.

The firearms industry is relatively small. The industry has seen this all happen before and supplies were bloated after the 1993-1995 hypermarket. Everyone lost some percentage of the extra profits they made holding excess inventory for several years in 1995 to 1998ish. Y2k helped flush the excess supply in the market. Additionally, the industry since 2000 has seen much consolidation via mergers and closures. Throw in some other factors (such as fast access to vast information and opinion both good and bad via the internet) and you may begin to see our current situation as it is rather than how the guys with the tin foil hats see it.

[Blueridge]

I also think that the current demand (that does not seem to be lessening any time soon) from our military is effecting the availability. I feel that their demand should come first anyway, but it would be nice to see a nice supply at the local stores though. I have enough to likely get me through the year, as I don't expend more than 300 rounds of ammo a month on average (I focus on quality over quantity practice). If I had the ammo expendatures that many have (1,000's a month) then I would have a problem with supply.

Supply will increase and prices will decrease in due time I believe.

This post has been edited by Blueridge: 12 March 2009 - 03:01 PM

[Rob Boudrie]

Quote

Supply will increase and prices will decrease in due time I believe.

True, but prices tend to be "sticky" and once they are pushed up by a shortage, it is uncommon for them to come back down to their former levels (gasoline seems to be an exception). I don't think primers ever got back down the "pre-shortage" pricing after the crisis of the early 90's. An excellent example of price stickiness is bullet pricing - which did not retract significantly with the lead market.

To the person who doesn't lay in a supply, it's "hoarding". To the person who got theirs, it's (according to KGL, an attorney USPSA member) it's "maintaining a prudent inventory of strategic supplies".

[BlackBuzzard]

I for one will not be getting a high-end AR15 for multigun this year, due to the long long wait and near stockout situation with 223 ammo. Both of the above issues need to improve considerably before I go forward with a new rifle order. Maybe next year.

Unfortunately this is one area of our sport that I feel shut out of at the moment......unless I find decent used equipment at less than newgun pricing ( oh yeah, I guess I'm paying a no-wait premium for the used stuff ).




BB

[B.Reid]

I personally don't see the primer pricing dropping that much after the explosion of demand just as the bullet prices did with the price of scrap. I'm having to pay double for the same sleave as I was 2 years ago. I never would've guessed that we would be in this situation. A little short sighted of me. I heard a person describe most eloquently the current issue , "No one can sell a gun like a Democrat".
On another note does anyone know what the allowable loaded or component amount of supplies is acceptable by the ATF? I'm buying all I can find and there is technically no reason that I should ever have to find out the hard way but it does make me curious.

[j1b]

It'll get harder before it gets easier.

All kinds of reasons. So many that it's too many to type.

I've never in my life been so concerned about the magnitude of change that is going to occur over the next ten years as I am today. Both for our sport and the world.

I'd build the nest egg today - in all regards that you would consider a nest egg. And I'd protect it like crazy.

The only constant is change . . .

If we're concerned about bullets, primers and powder today - think what it'll be like when we have to worry about water.

J

[Flexmoney]

I can't hardly watch any of the news outlets because they are all about doom and gloom (if it bleeds, it leads).

Things ebb and flow. We mostly hear the bad stuff, because people like to complain.


I just did the numbers on the Ohio Section's USPSA activity for this past year. We were at abut 98% of the prior year (and we didn't have a Section match last year to include in those numbers).

Pretty good.

[Bigpops]

From the looks of the last two matches that my wife and I shot, one last weekend at York, Pa. and one yesterday at St Charles, Md - USPSA is alive and well. York was full, and yesterday we had a stellar turnout in the rain and mud. We had several new shooters at both. Nice way to start the season, especailly seeing more women shooters. The word is getting out!

Supplies is another story.

[VegasOPM]

I think we will weather this storm just fine. Primers are in short supply, sure... but you can still find them if you look hard. I am just keeping enough to get through a few months. I have already seen the panic buying start to subside out here in Vegas. AR's are back on the shelves, at reasonable prices. My gun store has case lots of .223, 9mm, .40 and .45 for decent prices. The upside is that I have seen more new shooters at matches than I can ever remember. A lot of these new gun owners are looking for opportunities to practice and improve their skill-at-arms.

When the panic buying truly subsides and folks realize that the sky isn't falling- there will be a glut of supplies. Everyone is ramped up to maximum output, so when demand starts to drop, there will be a surplus of primers, powder, bullets, AR's, magazines and everything else.

Worst case, if the political climate changes again, you'll just see more shooters in Production and L10.

[larry cazes]

VegasOPM, on Mar 16 2009, 12:47 PM, said:

Worst case, if the political climate changes again, you'll just see more shooters in Production and L10.

When was the first change to better tolerance? I must have missed it.....

[KGentry]

Attendance at matches in our area - Texas are up this year.

[ken hebert]

Yes, attendance is up, even in my little corner of the state. Steel challenge is rolling right along also.

[Hank Ellis]

As we all know, if it goes bang, it's flying out the door. I see this as a fertile field ready for harvest. There are thousands if not tens of thousands who are new to the shooting sports and it's up to us to bring them to the range and matches. No manner what the shooting sport is. I'm seeing fresh faces at the clays range. I'm seeing new ARs being sighted and shot. The pile of handgun brass is deeper than it used to be. The more of us in the gun culture there is the better off we will be.

Specifically toward USPSA I see that we will have a influx of new shooters. Looking at the scoresheets of the three clubs I frequent I'm already seeing more PEN tags in the member number column. Mostly in Single Stack but also a number in Production and here and there in Limited.

I also see the potiental for 3-gun/Multi Gun to get a boost. There's a bunch of new ARs out there. Put together an 870 with an extended mag. Grab that Glock that has been around a while. Poof. New 3-gun competitor. It wouldn't hurt for clubs to have a rifle or shotgun side match to introduce the handgun only guys to 3-gun. We're pursuing that on a local level.

The issue of the materiel required to do the shooting sports is a front burner issue right now. Part of it is filling the pipline for all those new guns and shooters. Part of it is "hoarding" or "maintaining a prudent inventory of strategic supplies". Bottom line the demand is outstripping supply. Eventually the market will correct itself. Either the pipeline will be filled and demand will drop or new machinery will be put in place and supply will increase, or a bit of both.

Last summer, lead prices hit record levels. Lead shot at some places (Cabelas) went for $50 a bag. $38 was the norm if you could find it. Today it's $25 a bag and I can get all I want. Draw your own conclusions.

We will get through this and be better off tomorrow than we are today.

[kimel]

Quote

does anyone know what the allowable loaded or component amount of supplies is acceptable by the ATF?

As far as I know, this isn't regulated by ATF(e) but is by NFPA. See http://www.accuratepowder.com/nfpa.htm for more info.

Note that if you build a "magazine" for your powder and primers the amounts allowed go way up. Also, if your storage is detached from your dwelling the amounts are higher.

There are lots of plans out there for building powder magazines. It's a very easy Saturday project that requires a minimum of tools and construction knowledge.

I have one for powder, one for primers and plan to build one for loaded ammo (as much as a way to organize myself than anything else).

[SA Friday]

Hank Ellis, on Mar 17 2009, 08:08 AM, said:

As we all know, if it goes bang, it's flying out the door. I see this as a fertile field ready for harvest. There are thousands if not tens of thousands who are new to the shooting sports and it's up to us to bring them to the range and matches. No manner what the shooting sport is. I'm seeing fresh faces at the clays range. I'm seeing new ARs being sighted and shot. The pile of handgun brass is deeper than it used to be. The more of us in the gun culture there is the better off we will be.

Specifically toward USPSA I see that we will have a influx of new shooters. Looking at the scoresheets of the three clubs I frequent I'm already seeing more PEN tags in the member number column. Mostly in Single Stack but also a number in Production and here and there in Limited.

I also see the potiental for 3-gun/Multi Gun to get a boost. There's a bunch of new ARs out there. Put together an 870 with an extended mag. Grab that Glock that has been around a while. Poof. New 3-gun competitor. It wouldn't hurt for clubs to have a rifle or shotgun side match to introduce the handgun only guys to 3-gun. We're pursuing that on a local level.

The issue of the materiel required to do the shooting sports is a front burner issue right now. Part of it is filling the pipline for all those new guns and shooters. Part of it is "hoarding" or "maintaining a prudent inventory of strategic supplies". Bottom line the demand is outstripping supply. Eventually the market will correct itself. Either the pipeline will be filled and demand will drop or new machinery will be put in place and supply will increase, or a bit of both.

Last summer, lead prices hit record levels. Lead shot at some places (Cabelas) went for $50 a bag. $38 was the norm if you could find it. Today it's $25 a bag and I can get all I want. Draw your own conclusions.

We will get through this and be better off tomorrow than we are today.

I agree completely.