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how long will the shortage last?


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#1 asontag

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 08:54 AM

I've only been reloading for about a year, so this is a question for those of you who've gone through these hoarding cycles before. How long do you think it will be before reloading supplies are readily available again? I would think the manufacturers have ramped up production to try to keep up with demand, but maybe it's not worth expanding their capacity since this should be a temporary bubble. From what I hear, primer prices never really dropped back down after the last shortage, so can we expect to pay more forever? Any thoughts?

#2 UW Mitch

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 09:34 AM

After Obama was elected in 2008 it wasn't until 2010 that an order I placed in December 2008 from Powder Valley and from Cabelas was filled. So that was about 14-18 months waiting on backorder. By 2011 supply seemed back to "normal" with still inflated pricing. I will pine just a little and recall that when I started reloading in 2003 I could go to the gun show and Winchester SPP's for $12/1000. I would imagine the "norm" will be around $25-35/1000 once we can start getting more supply.

My in ~2006 or so when primer prices increased from the $12 to $16-17 was to stock up enough for a year of shooting. Now I don't shoot quite as much so I'm stocked up more like 18 months of primers, brass and bullets. I try not to keep too much powder on hand.

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#3 JeremieJ

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 09:34 AM

I am just getting into reloading and it has been a struggle just to get started! I see that primers are now worth their weight in gold lol. A friend of mine sent me a link this morning to a website with stock on small pistol primers. http://store.thirdge...cfm/2,3715.html Hopefully there will be some left for you all!

#4 cworks

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Posted 29 January 2013 - 10:55 AM

I am just getting into reloading and it has been a struggle just to get started! I see that primers are now worth their weight in gold lol. A friend of mine sent me a link this morning to a website with stock on small pistol primers. http://store.thirdge...cfm/2,3715.html Hopefully there will be some left for you all!

out of stock on WSP and WSR thanks for the heads up.

#5 818-DVC

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 07:23 PM

I can't beleive what they are charging for bullets. $20 for 100 95gr .355's.
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#6 Sarge

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Posted 30 January 2013 - 07:30 PM


I am just getting into reloading and it has been a struggle just to get started! I see that primers are now worth their weight in gold lol. A friend of mine sent me a link this morning to a website with stock on small pistol primers. http://store.thirdge...cfm/2,3715.html Hopefully there will be some left for you all!

out of stock on WSP and WSR thanks for the heads up.

Showing WSP in stock right now.

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#7 blueeyedme

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 07:35 AM

Showing WSP in stock right now.


Look at those prices! Thank goodness I have enough primers for the year. Just gave a brick to one of my shooting buddies who was caught flat footed...just asked him to replace when he can...which may be a while.

#8 twodownzero

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Posted 31 January 2013 - 07:57 AM

I would say that it took about 10 months last time before primers were available again. I ordered 20k primers in October of 2008. They started to become available again in August or so of 2009. I remember ordering another 10-15k in December of 2009.

That said, a steady supply where one could purchase his choice of brands has not existed at all since Obama has been in office. I try to buy all of my primers in a single order, so that I don't have to pay hazmat more than once (and even split it with friends to order even more). Since 2008, I have been more willing to deal with the fact that I may be able to only get one kind of primers (as in, only small pistol or only large rifle) and pay the hazmat fees on them only, or perhaps order some powder at the same time.

I long for the day when primers will be available again in my choice of brands, so that I can at least order whatever I prefer. Maybe others can give their opinion on that, but my sources have not had enough for that at any time (that I've checked) in the last 5 years.
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#9 jmorris

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Posted 01 February 2013 - 08:45 PM

3 years, 2 months, 14 days and 16 hours...or was that how long Forest Gump ran for...

#10 old506

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Posted 01 February 2013 - 08:52 PM

I put in a backorder for 8k srp on Dec 27 at Powder Valley. Figured I could use them for rifle or pistol if I needed them. I was expecting 3-4 months (at least), they showed up yesterday.
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#11 JimmyZip

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 12:30 AM


Showing WSP in stock right now.


Look at those prices! Thank goodness I have enough primers for the year. Just gave a brick to one of my shooting buddies who was caught flat footed...just asked him to replace when he can...which may be a while.

I just did this too. I bought so many last time that I actually have enough for a few years. I will be trading for some bullets soon though as I have only 5k on hand and my 13 y.o. is supposed to start shooting Production and GSSF this year.
no better place than here.. no better time than now....

#12 Sarge

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 09:22 AM

I started phase II of my shooting adventures right in the middle of the 2008 election. By the time I got the press and components everything dried up BAD. I don't think this time around has been as bad SO FAR. Who remembers PV's website saying there are over 50 million primers on backorder? It took almost a year to get a backorder from them. Seems like things can still be had reasonably if you are just willing to wait a month or so.

I must admit though, Dillon never went to backorder status like it is right now. At least I don't recall that happening before. Waiting a year for a set of dies, etc is just plain ridiculous.

Over the last few years I have stockpiled enough primer and powder to shoot for at least 6-8 years. I just bought 12k MG 121's on a group buy to add to my 4k on hand. I plan to buy another case every three months or so until I can be worry free.

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#13 polizei1

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 09:29 AM

I just read somewhere that PV just ordered 30m primers to fill the BO's. And that's on top of everything else that was already ordered and processed since Jan.

I think if everyone only bought enough supplies to last them a year to a year-and a half, the shortage would be nonexistent.

Edited by polizei1, 02 February 2013 - 09:31 AM.

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#14 GrumpyOne

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 02:07 PM

I started phase II of my shooting adventures right in the middle of the 2008 election. By the time I got the press and components everything dried up BAD. I don't think this time around has been as bad SO FAR. Who remembers PV's website saying there are over 50 million primers on backorder? It took almost a year to get a backorder from them. Seems like things can still be had reasonably if you are just willing to wait a month or so.

I must admit though, Dillon never went to backorder status like it is right now. At least I don't recall that happening before. Waiting a year for a set of dies, etc is just plain ridiculous.

Over the last few years I have stockpiled enough primer and powder to shoot for at least 6-8 years. I just bought 12k MG 121's on a group buy to add to my 4k on hand. I plan to buy another case every three months or so until I can be worry free.

Sarge, if you'd stop shooting, you'd already have enough for the rest of your life...:)
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#15 SlowShooter

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 02:25 PM

I think if everyone only bought enough supplies to last them a year to a year-and a half, the shortage would be nonexistent.


I think your grossly overestimate the thoughtfulness of the average shooter.
I believe that most people do _not_ have "supplies to last them a year" and only just-now decided they need to have more than 1 weekend's worth.
when a bunch of people get up off their couch and order 6-months worth of ammo, primers, powder, etc. we have the shortage as we are seeing it now.

Edited by SlowShooter, 02 February 2013 - 02:27 PM.

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#16 lugnut

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 02:25 PM

I think if everyone only bought enough supplies to last them a year to a year-and a half, the shortage would be nonexistent.


Hmmm. Either people don't shoot a lot per year... or you have a shit load of primers/components!!
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#17 reichebrown

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 03:53 PM

I got into reloading during the past shortage and have purchased things 1k and 1 pound at a time from a local shop when I needed it. This time around I have been stopping in two times a week to find out be doesn't have what I want. After a handful of trips peaving empty handed my wife asked why I don't just order online. I told her I have been avoiding the hazmat fee. She politely reminded me what my time is worth with all of these pointless trips. I think I'm going to start ordering components a year or so at a time and go in on shipping with friends to beat the hazmat fee.

#18 EEH

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 04:30 PM

the shortage will last 6 months 21 days and 32 minutes :roflol: :roflol:

#19 Steve RA

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Posted 02 February 2013 - 05:36 PM

I also think part of the problem on the ammunition end is that people who have a sidearm for defense and maybe shoot 50 rounds a year are going over the cliff and trying to buy five years supply all at once now. These people don't affect the reloading supplies any because they aren't reloaders.

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#20 818-DVC

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 01:57 PM

wait til those people who never shoot go broke. you'll see it here in the classifieds in the next few months. during the shortage, I got some sweet deals on calguns and other forums from people who bought way too much and had misfortunes of some sort. hate to be looked at as an opportunist, but I have to be if everyones eyes weren't bigger than there stomachs. I bought 4k of bullets to last me 2-3 months, as I usually do. I know people who are buying primers and acting like commodities brokers.
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#21 Poppa Bear

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Posted 03 February 2013 - 02:39 PM

I just read somewhere that PV just ordered 30m primers to fill the BO's. And that's on top of everything else that was already ordered and processed since Jan.

I think if everyone only bought enough supplies to last them a year to a year-and a half, the shortage would be nonexistent.


20K is about right for 1 1/2 years worth of shooting.

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